An LLM agent holding raw credentials is the ultimate confused deputy. OAP — Orbit’s implementation of the Agent Proxy Pattern — gives every trading agent a scoped, capped, revocable mandate instead: every order checked by a deterministic policy engine, every action receipted, loss provably bounded.

What separates a market’s forecast from a committee’s opinion is stake. This paper decomposes event prices into the populations behind them — expressive bettors, hedgers, arbitrageurs, informed flow — and shows how conviction-weighted judgment, Bayes, and Kelly compose into a discipline for trading events.

An event contract is a digital option — but the replication arguments that price ordinary derivatives stop working where events begin. This paper maps the boundary between replication and estimation, and builds the pricing and CVaR-hedging architecture that lives on the far side of it.